Recently, Andras Savos, president of the German-Hungarian Chamber of Commerce and Industry, reportedly said that the outcome of the U.S. presidential election poses new risks for Europe’s largest economy, Germany, whose economic stagnation has already affected the prospects for recovery in the export-dependent Central European region.
source：CCTV News
Hungary will be affected exponentially by its trade links with Germany if the next US president, Donald Trump, makes good on his promise to impose tariffs on imports from Europe, Andras Savos said.
Japanese brokerage Nomura predicts that Germany could be more vulnerable to US import tariffs than other eurozone members, which would have a knock-on effect on Central Europe given its close trade links with the country. Central Europe and Germany’s trade links in the automotive sector is particularly close, the Central European region sold to Germany’s automotive and automotive parts and components products accounted for 20 per cent to 30 per cent of the total exports of China and Europe.
Economists at the International Group of the Netherlands (ING) said that although Central Europe has relatively few direct links with the US, it is fully exposed to the impact of the US trade policy reform programme.
ING said the main risks for Central Europe come from trade links with Germany and concerns about the automotive sector, which seem to be the worst possible combination from a future perspective. ‘We believe that market expectations for economic recovery in Central and Eastern Europe next year are overly optimistic and that these regions may see a downward trend in their economies next year.’
Eurostat data show that in 2023, Germany’s car exports to the United States will be worth €23.41bn, while Poland, Romania, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary will export €18.92bn to Germany.
However, Eurostat and the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development could not provide details of the share of Central Europe’s exports of cars and car parts to the United States via Germany.
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